Why CMB exists
Geopolitics is Price
Geopolitics dictates asset prices, input prices and costs for companies. Uranium does not rise on isolated fundamentals; it rises because European gas rose. Every price is the visible tip of a geopolitical chain. Those who ignore the chain react. Those who map it anticipate.
Most geopolitical analysis in markets is narrative.
Headline commentary and well-written opinion are not analysis. CMB was built in the opposite direction: qualitative rigor, explicit method, forecasting discipline and a public record that holds the bureau accountable.
We create real value
No headlines, no elaborate theories. We analyze the practical consequences of geopolitical events and their impact on your cash flow, guiding decision-making.
Anticipation is the Process.
The Cascade maps 2nd and 3rd order consequences. Probabilistic models distribute scenarios. Analysis by elimination narrows actions and consequences. Repeated week after week. There is no magic; there is method.
Principal
André Abbud.
Geopolitical analyst. Founder of the Chokepoint Mapping Bureau.
André works as an independent geopolitical analyst focused on commodities, critical minerals, energy and supply chains. He serves anyone exposed to geopolitical events — funds, family offices, banks, miners, agricultural producers — through monthly retainers and specific mandates. He is completing a Master of International Business at FGV and maintains a public presence on YouTube, Instagram, LinkedIn and Substack.
Want to see the method applied — dated and signed?