Public track record
Every call the bureau makes, dated and auditable: the hits, the misses, and what's still open.
*Computed over resolved calls only. Open calls are excluded.
The Hormuz blockade converts nuclear supply security into measurable buying behaviour, creating structural price asymmetry in U₃O₈ with an 85% combined upside probability and a weighted price of US$110/lb within 12--24 months against a spot of ~US$86.5.
Confirmed
The Hormuz blockade converts nuclear supply security into measurable buying behaviour, creating structural price asymmetry in U₃O₈ with an 85% combined upside probability and a weighted price of US$110/lb within 12--24 months against a spot of ~US$86.5.
What happened
The thesis was confirmed across multiple steps between March and July 2026. The U₃O₈ long-term indicator reached US$93/lb on 31 March 2026 (highest in 18+ years), and new EU utility contracts advanced +50% y/y in average price (ESA 2024 data). The Hormuz--European nuclear revival connection reached mainstream press in May (CNBC/IEA). The definitive confirmation came on 18 July 2026: France and Germany announced joint military nuclear exercises -- Rafale and Eurofighters in a joint exercise the day before --, with Chancellor Merz invoking exactly the thesis logic: recurring energy security disruptions require European strategic autonomy, and nuclear is the axis of that conversion. Spot remained flat (~US$85--86.5) since the original publication; the thesis mechanism predicted the contracting cycle would price earlier and more stably than spot -- confirmed with the long-term indicator at US$93 while spot oscillated within ±US$2 of the March anchor.